Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
