A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
