A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
